Investment performance measures (model)Despite the fact we could not collect enough deal data to study VSs’ performance from investors’ point of view, we can model the missing measures and demonstrate some interesting conclusions (spoiler: IRR is not the best metric to compare the performance of entrepreneurial support organizations quantitatively).
We have modeled the portfolio of an abstract ESO with 100 deals, which have random features but follow the distributions of the research sample in each variable. The model can be found in
Appendix 4 (sheet "IRR model (100 deals)"), you can copy it to your Google Drive and repeat our experiments. The Sheet “IRR model (1000 deals)” contains a similar model but for a 1,000 deals portfolio.
We made several assumptions, which we believe should not influence the overall model outcomes. First, we assumed that all deals are made by any ESO considered in the study. Of course, this is purely artificial but aims to demonstrate the model for all pre-seed deals, no matter which ESO was employed. Second, we assumed all deals to happen on one date of January 1, 2014. We believe the variance in the investment dates is not critical here. Third, we assumed 50% dilution for all deals. Unfortunately, we could not find any kind of reliable statistics which would provide any trustworthy grounds for assuming this value. Fourth, for exit valuations, we took the same distribution as we received for the last available funding valuations from the research sample. For sure, exit valuations may be significantly different from the ones received during some series of after-pre-seed investments, but we assume the distribution should be similar, especially in terms of Exit/Fail rate.
The model demonstrates that the created portfolio IRR equals 17% and, in general, follows the VC market averages for the pre-seed series of investments (
PitchBook, 2023). But what is interesting is the
sensitivity of the IRR measure. If we change one failed investment to a unicorn (yes, this is a very extreme case but that is what we saw happening in terms of the outliers), for instance, #11 that seems to have investment parameters very similar to an accelerator one, we will see that the
IRR changed to 25% and demonstrated a 38% growth. If we further consider this deal as made by a venture studio and change the pre-seed ownership from 6% to 30% (that is believed to be an average for venture studios nowadays,
Pog, 2023,
Kannan and Peterman, 2022), we get a
40% IRR that is 46% higher than for 6% ownership and 81% higher compared to the initial case of a failed #11 investment. If we assume that all these deals were made by one venture studio (i.e., all first funding shares = 30%), we get a 34% IRR for the initial setting and a
46% IRR for the #11 unicorn deal case. Remember, we haven’t changed any other deal and considered only realized assets based on the real market raw data.
What does it mean? From our perspective, that means that IRR is a very tricky measure that
should be treated with caution: even one abnormally successful deal out of 100 (i.e., 1%) can increase IRR drastically. The situation can become even more tenuous if IRR is taken as an average of a relatively small sample with an intransparent methodology of measuring the IRR. If, for instance, unrealized assets are included, it could quickly outpace the market average with optimistic projections coming from fund managers (who won’t bet that at least 1% of their deals will become a unicorn?).
The 1,000-deal model (
Appendix 4 (sheet "IRR model (1k deals)")), in turn, demonstrates the dependence of an IRR on the portfolio size. We applied the same rules and assumptions to this model, and the only difference from the first one is that it has 1,000 deals instead of 100. First, we calculated IRRs for every portfolio size while decreasing it by 100 in an iteration. Next, we changed the #976 deal (again, it looks similar to an accelerator’s and close to the end of the table, so as not to scroll 1k rows all the time) making it a unicorn one during the exit and wrote down the new IRRs. Finally, our sensitivity analysis reveals a significant relationship between portfolio size and the impact of exceptional performers on Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Portfolios containing 400-1,000 deals show minimal sensitivity to outlier performance, with IRR variations of only 1-2%. However, as portfolio size decreases below 300 deals, sensitivity increases markedly, reaching an extreme variation of 19% for portfolios of 100 deals. From this experiment, we can conclude that
IRRs of smaller portfolios are largely sensitive to abnormally successful deals: as a rule of thumb, 100 deals may be taken as a threshold.
From our perspective,
any measures assessing VS performance should be provided
in a form of distributions and by actual status clustering, i.e., separating measures of, for instance, realized assets from all spun-out, alive, and failed. The one number, especially of such a sensitive metric as an IRR, cannot describe the full picture and, thus, can hardly be used for decision-making. We believe our principle can propose a more complex picture of venture studios and their dynamics ultimately leading to an investor’s ability to make more data-driven decisions.
Moreover, we derived two conceptual strategies that may be employed by both venture studios to manage their operations, and by investors to find and track potential outperformed.
Two strategies for venture studiosThe results of the VAL-GR analysis - in particular, backing the major VC principles in terms of outliers - led us to develop a conceptual framework describing possible strategies for venture studio management and their relation to other ESOs.
If you remember, we have demonstrated that VAL-GR distribution in terms of realized assets for pre-seed deals has particular features:
- It may have high and low variance/IQR. This feature, from our perspective, is connected to the acceptance by the ESO model of unsuccessful investments or fails. The higher this acceptance is - the wider is the IQR and vice versa. For example, pre-seed VC funds have a significantly wider IQR than accelerators, founders-first VC funds, and venture studios, which all have internal mechanisms to decrease investment risks by increasing the influence on a new venture's early stages.
- It may have higher and lower statistical measures than the population distribution (quartiles, averages, outliers, etc.). These features seem to be connected with the ESOs target of generating extremely successful cases, i.e., outliers. The greater the intent to create extremely successful cases - the higher the statistical metrics.
We assume that these qualities may be employed to define and assess the ESOs' strategies for developing new ventures. In particular, taking
outliers intents (further
Outliers) and
fails acceptance (further
Fails) as two crossing axes with extreme cases in the ends (low-high), we can develop a 4-quadrant framework describing all existing ESOs’ strategies.
By VC principles (
Zider. 1998), pre-seed VC funds, accelerators, and founders-first VC funds accept a higher fail rate while targeting the creation of more outliers which are expected to provide portfolio returns. These ESOs vary in the level of operational control, which is imposed to decrease the risk of failures. We can locate these ESOs in the lower right corner with some
Fail-axis gradation.
Venture studios, in turn, aim to “de-risk” new venture development by making the number of fails lower (we see the evidence of that by the narrower IQR). Therefore, we locate them in the upper part of the framework, where fails are expected to be lower than in other ESOs.
Next, regarding the
Outliers-axis, VSs seem to have two strategies:
Strategy 1: Rely on creating a portfolio of safer, less-disruptive ventures; or
Strategy 2: Decide to generate more potential disruptors, i.e., growth outliers.
Our results propose evidence in favor of the second strategy: median VAL-GR of VSs’ realized pre-seed assets is higher than the average and only lower than the median of the pre-seed VC funds (not statistically significant). VSs’ outliers also demonstrate a higher VAL-GR than ACCs and VC-FFs and are comparable to the results of VCs (again, not statistically significant).
At the same time, we heard from some studios that they target to create average-growth (in terms of a traditional VC) new ventures while not going into the disruptive space (e.g.,
Accelerators VS Venture Studios. Startupbootcamp & Venturerock | Marc Wesselink, 2023). From their perspective, these entities are able to provide viable returns under the higher-stake studio model while requiring lower risks to be accepted. Thus, these studios select the first strategy.